Reform Ahead in Wales Poll — As Living Standards Go Backwards Under Labour
The numbers behind the noise: big voter switching in Wales, and a per-capita downturn that explains the mood.
Wales has produced another political snapshot — and whatever your view of the parties, the direction is hard to ignore. Voters are moving, old loyalties are loosening, and the next Senedd election is shaping up less like a continuation of the past and more like a contest fought on new ground.
That matters because what happens in Wales in May won’t stay in Wales: it will feed directly into the wider story about Starmer, Labour’s grip on power, and whether the government is delivering anything people can feel.
🏴 Wales snapshot: Reform leads in this poll — and Labour is being squeezed
The latest More in Common poll puts the headline numbers at Reform 31%, Plaid Cymru 24%, and Labour 20%. Even in a poll that’s arguably less bad for Labour than some other recent snapshots, the picture is still the same: a two-horse race emerging between Reform and Plaid, with Labour slipping behind.
This isn’t about claiming one poll predicts the result. It doesn’t. Different pollsters can show different patterns, partly because of the panels they use and who responds, even after weighting is applied to try to reflect the population overall. So the right way to read this is as a barometer: a baseline snapshot of where things stand right now and how voters are moving.
And the movement matters. Reform’s base appears highly consolidated, the Conservative vote is fractured with a large slice peeling away, and Labour is losing a substantial chunk of its previous coalition to Plaid. Put those together, and you get the core point: Labour’s long grip on Welsh politics is coming to an end unless something changes fast.
If Labour were to take a hammering in Wales in May, it wouldn’t be filed as a local wobble. Wales has been a Labour pillar for decades. A heavy defeat there would raise an obvious Westminster question: how long can Keir Starmer carry on into the next general election if he can’t hold core Labour territory?
🧨 Starmer’s problem is judgment — and it’s catching up with him
A lot of Starmer’s problems aren’t accidents. They’re decisions — and the theme that keeps returning is judgment at the top.
The row involving Lord Matthew Doyle — a former senior Starmer communications figure — became another test of standards and oversight: what was known, what wasn’t disclosed, and why decisive action only seemed to come once pressure built. Then there’s Mandelson — a name that reappears because it’s not a small staffing detail, it’s a signal about instincts. When Starmer chooses to elevate people who bring controversy, he doesn’t just inherit a headache — he owns it.
What makes this more damaging is the context: Starmer’s authority isn’t as strong as the seat count suggests. Labour won power in 2024 with fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn achieved, which means the government holds power, but not deep public support. And it’s increasingly clear many of Starmer’s own MPs aren’t exactly brimming with confidence either. When you govern on thin consent, judgment errors land harder — because the public is already asking why it should trust you.
📉 Living standards: GDP per head is falling — and that’s why people feel poorer
This is the part voters actually live. It’s not about Westminster drama. It’s about whether life feels easier or harder.
The latest GDP figures tell a blunt story. Headline growth can be nudged slightly positive, but GDP per head has now fallen for two consecutive quarters. That matters because GDP per head is the closest simple measure we have of whether the average person is getting richer. Two quarters of decline means that, on average, people are getting poorer, even if ministers insist the “plan is working”.
That is why Reeves’ optimism doesn’t land. When output per person is shrinking, it becomes harder to lift wages, harder to stabilise public services without ever-higher taxes, and harder to claim the country is genuinely moving forward. You can’t spin your way out of per-person decline.
And if the economic project isn’t delivering, the accountability chain is obvious: Rachel Reeves may front the strategy, but Keir Starmer chose her, empowered her, and owns the consequences.
🎙️ This week with Mike Graham
I joined Mike Graham this week, and we took a hard look at the GDP figures — stripping away the optimistic narrative and focusing on what matters: the per-person reality. When GDP per person falls for two quarters in a row, people aren’t “imagining it” when they say life feels harder — the numbers match the mood.
We also touched on the row over comments made by Sir Jim Ratcliffe, after the Prime Minister demanded an apology. Ratcliffe has since apologised — but not for holding a view. And that’s a point worth defending. A healthy country should be able to argue about big issues without forcing people to recite an approved script. The job of government is to answer the substance with facts and policy — not to outsource leadership to outrage.
🔎 What’s coming up this week
And if you think this week was grim, next week could easily be worse.
We’ve got jobs figures on Tuesday, inflation on Wednesday, and public sector borrowing on Friday — three releases that go straight to the heart of the government’s economic story. If the labour market continues to soften, if inflation stays sticky, or if borrowing comes in hot again, it will underline the same point voters are already feeling: the “plan” isn’t delivering relief.
For Rachel Reeves, that’s the danger zone. When GDP per head is falling, and households feel squeezed, you don’t have much room for error. A bad run of releases doesn’t just dent a narrative — it reinforces the sense of drift.
And politically, the problem for Keir Starmer is that his cushion is thin. When authority is already fragile, every new controversy lands harder. The next week’s data will tell us whether the squeeze is easing or embedding. Either way, it’s shaping up to be another bruising few days for the government.
✍️ Jamie Jenkins
Stats Jamie | Stats, Facts & Opinions
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No sign of the Greens then Jamie ,I guess that's because the Welsh always eat their greens. Hopefully Reform will do the job and start to undo all the mad net zero rubbish.