Plaid Cymru vs Reform: Welsh Politics Is Entering a New Era
Multiple polls now point to Plaid Cymru and Reform UK as the dominant forces in Wales, with Labour squeezed from both sides ahead of the 2026 Senedd election.
For most of the devolution era, Welsh politics followed a familiar pattern: Labour dominance, opposition parties competing underneath, and outcomes that rarely surprised.
That pattern now looks to be breaking.
Recent polling suggests Wales is moving towards a new dividing line — not Labour versus everyone else, but Plaid Cymru versus Reform UK.
This is not a marginal shift. It increasingly looks like a political realignment.
📊 From dominance to displacement: how Welsh politics is reshaping
The latest YouGov polling reported by Cardiff University shows the following Senedd vote intention among decided voters:
Plaid Cymru: ~33%
Reform UK: ~30%
Welsh Labour: ~10%
Welsh Conservatives: ~10%
Greens: ~9%
Welsh Liberal Democrats: ~6%
These figures exclude respondents who say they don’t know or would not vote, focusing only on people expressing a voting intention. One poll does not decide an election. But this poll does not stand alone.
It continues a pattern seen across multiple recent polls, all pointing in the same direction: Plaid Cymru and Reform UK emerging as the two dominant forces in Welsh politics.
Different polls. Different moments. Same underlying result.
If this pattern holds, Wales is heading towards what increasingly looks like a two-horse race — not necessarily for government, but for who tops the poll and defines the political narrative.
🔄 Where the vote is coming from — and where it’s going
To understand why this is happening, we need to look beyond the topline.
Analysis by the Wales Governance Centre compares how people voted in the 2024 UK General Election with how they now say they would vote in a Senedd election.
The voter movements are substantial — and measurable.
From Labour
41% of people who voted Labour in 2024 now say they would vote Plaid Cymru
10% of 2024 Labour voters now say they would vote Reform UK
10% of 2024 Labour voters now say they would vote Green
From Conservative:
41% of people who voted Conservative in 2024 now say they would vote Reform UK
The implication is stark.
Labour is losing support in both directions at once, while Plaid consolidates much of the left and Reform absorbs a large share of the right.
That is not a normal electoral swing. It is a structural squeeze.
🔴 Labour, Westminster, and the punishment effect
One theme repeatedly highlighted in Welsh political discussion is the UK–Welsh Labour dynamic.
Right now, the UK Labour government is facing sustained pressure, with the popularity of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves proving a continuing challenge.
Voters rarely separate tiers of government cleanly. When dissatisfaction builds nationally, it is often expressed locally.
If Labour continues to struggle at Westminster, Welsh Labour is likely to be punished at the ballot box, regardless of devolved responsibilities.
That helps explain why Labour’s decline in Wales looks so steep — and so persistent.
🚨 The “far-right” label — and why I challenge it
A central feature of Plaid Cymru’s current campaigning is the claim that the election is about “stopping Reform”, with Reform UK frequently described by opponents and sympathetic commentators as far-right.
I’ve challenged that framing directly before, because it runs into a basic analytical problem:
👉 How can a party polling at around 30% and competing to be the largest political force in Wales be dismissed as fringe or marginal?
Calling a party “far-right” may serve a campaigning purpose. It does not, by itself, explain why so many voters are now backing it.
📈 Why Reform’s vote is growing in Wales
If labels don’t explain the shift, the underlying dynamics do. Several factors consistently emerge in Welsh political analysis.
First, disillusionment with long-running governance. After more than two decades of devolution, many voters do not feel outcomes on public services, living costs, or local government have improved in ways they can see or feel.
Second, immigration and asylum. While immigration is not devolved, its effects are experienced locally — particularly around asylum accommodation, housing pressure, and public services. Voters do not filter issues through constitutional competence when deciding how to vote.
Third, the collapse of the Conservative offer. Reform’s rise is closely linked to the erosion of Conservative support, with Reform increasingly acting as the default destination for right-leaning voters.
And finally, momentum and visibility. Reform is talked about — constantly. In media, online, and increasingly on the ground. In crowded elections, attention matters.
None of this guarantees success. But it does help explain why support is rising.
🟢 Plaid Cymru: ambition meets fiscal reality
Plaid Cymru’s long-term objective remains Welsh independence, even if the immediate campaign focus is elsewhere. What Plaid rarely addresses directly is the structural reality of Welsh public finances.
Wales currently:
receives more in public spending than it raises in tax receipts
benefits from fiscal transfers within the UK system
That creates a significant unanswered question:
How would an independent Wales replace that funding gap?
This does not negate Plaid’s electoral momentum. But it remains a fiscal black hole that will become harder to avoid as Plaid moves closer to power.
🧭 Organisation, turnout, and the path to power
Turnout will be central to that story.
Historically, Senedd elections attract lower participation than UK General Elections, with around half of eligible voters typically not voting. That creates both a risk and an opportunity — particularly for parties drawing support from voters who feel disengaged from the political system.
If turnout rises even modestly, it has the potential to materially change the electoral landscape.
That matters because support for Reform UK appears to be coming from voters who have often felt unrepresented or ignored in previous elections. Converting that sentiment into participation could prove decisive under Wales’ new proportional system.
There is also a wider strategic point.
Under the new Senedd rules, the first objective for any party is not necessarily forming a government — it is establishing itself as a major political force. Topping the poll, or emerging clearly as one of the largest parties, carries legitimacy, leverage, and agenda-setting power.
In that context, momentum matters.
If current polling trends hold, the contest to define the post-Labour political era will be shaped as much by who mobilises supporters as by who persuades undecided voters.
🔚 The bottom line
Welsh politics is no longer organised around Labour.
It is reorganising into two competing poles:
Plaid Cymru
Reform UK
Labour is being squeezed from both directions, while Westminster politics continues to feed directly into Welsh outcomes.
If current trends persist, 2026 will not just be another Senedd election.
It will mark the moment Welsh politics fully enters a new, competitive, post-Labour era — with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK at the centre of the fight.
✍️ Jamie Jenkins
Stats Jamie | Stats, Facts & Opinions
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