29% of Welsh Voters Back Reform UK. Is Plaid Cymru Calling Them All ‘Far Right’?
Plaid MSs branded Reform UK “far right” in the Senedd. But new polling shows Reform neck-and-neck with Plaid — and leading for Westminster
On 17 September in the Welsh Parliament, Plaid Cymru’s Heledd Fychan painted a stark picture of Wales’s political future.
She declared:
“It is clear that Wales’s future lies down two very different paths. One offers the grievance-fuelled politics of a far-right party that openly talks about erasing our very identity as a nation and the public services we hold dear.”
The “far-right party” she was talking about is Reform UK.
But here’s the problem: the numbers don’t fit the label.
A Historic Election Ahead
Next year Wales faces a pivotal Senedd election. For over a century, Labour have dominated Welsh politics, winning every election since the 1920s. But that era looks set to end.
In a damning verdict on Welsh Labour’s record in government — and, more recently, the performance of the UK Labour Party — the polls show Labour not just losing ground, but falling out of the top two parties altogether.
Instead, it is Plaid Cymru and Reform UK who now dominate the race for the Senedd. Two very different parties, occupying very different spaces on the political spectrum.
But there’s a twist. For many years, Plaid have actually propped up Labour in power at Cardiff Bay — through formal cooperation agreements and informal deals. That favour could well be returned next year. If Plaid and Labour together scrape enough votes to hit the magical 49 seats needed for a Senedd majority, they could once again form a ruling bloc to keep Reform out.
So when Plaid MSs brand Reform “far right”, it’s not just political rhetoric — it’s also a signal to Labour that the old alliance might still be alive if it means keeping Reform from power.
Who Are Plaid Cymru?
For readers outside Wales, some context.
Plaid Cymru are Wales’s nationalist party. They sit firmly on the progressive left of politics, campaigning for Welsh independence, expanded devolved powers, and more public spending. Their policies include:
Piloting a Universal Basic Income
Achieving net zero by 2035
Introducing a de-medicalised gender self-identification system
Supporting a Nation of Sanctuary in Wales: welcoming refugees, opposing third-country deportations, restoring refugee travel support, and even calling for devolved powers to run Wales’s own migration and visa schemes
These are Plaid’s own words, drawn directly from their 2024 manifesto.
The Numbers
A YouGov/ITV Wales poll (Sept 2025) found:
Senedd: Plaid Cymru 30%, Reform UK 29%
Westminster: Reform 29%, Plaid 23%, Labour 18%, Conservatives 11%
Nationally, the story is the same. Reform is polling 30–35% across the UK, more than double their general election result, pulling voters from both Labour and the Conservatives. That is not the definition of “fringe.”
So if Reform is “far right”, what does that make the one in three voters backing them?
Why Plaid Are Playing This Game
Plaid’s attack lines aren’t about principle — they’re about survival.
When YouGov asked Welsh voters, “Which political party do you think would best handle the following issues?”, the results were damning:
Economy: just 6% chose Plaid, compared to 16% for Reform
Immigration: only 5% chose Plaid, compared to 30% for Reform
Standing up for Wales: Plaid’s strong suit at 52%
Welsh language: Plaid is dominant at 61%
👉 Plaid is trusted on cultural questions — but Reform leads decisively on the issues driving voter anger: immigration and the economy.
Now, immigration and the wider economy are generally managed in Westminster rather than Cardiff Bay. But that doesn’t mean they don’t matter in Senedd elections. Voters bring those concerns with them when they cast their ballot — and right now, it’s Reform they trust on the big national questions.
But Labels Cut Both Ways
Here’s the reality:
Reform is projected to win 37 seats in the expanded Senedd, just one behind Plaid on 38.
A party at that scale is not “fringe.”
And the language game cuts both ways. If Plaid insist on calling Reform at 29% “far right”, then many voters could just as easily look at Plaid’s own programme — more immigration into Wales, UBI pilots, gender self-ID, and net zero by 2035 — and call them “far left.”
The truth is, both labels are lazy. What matters is what the numbers show: Reform is mainstream, competing toe-to-toe with Plaid, and no amount of name-calling changes that.
The Centre Has Shifted
The bigger story is a shift in the political centre of gravity.
Ten years ago, calls to cut immigration were branded “radical.” Today, the numbers tell a different story.
In YouGov’s 15 September 2025 tracker, 56% of voters listed immigration and asylum among their top three concerns — more than any other category, including the economy. (YouGov tracker)
This is why Reform are surging. Their message on immigration aligns directly with the number-one public concern. Plaid, meanwhile, are arguing for more immigration into Wales — putting themselves on the opposite side of the debate that most voters now care about most.
Conclusion
Heledd Fychan’s words in the Senedd summed up Plaid’s approach: cast Reform UK as “far right” and hope the label scares voters off.
But the numbers tell a very different story.
Reform are polling 29% in Wales
They lead Plaid for Westminster
They’re projected to be almost level in the Senedd
That is not “fringe.” That is mainstream.
Plaid can keep throwing labels around. But the data shows Reform are now a major force in Welsh politics — and millions of voters aren’t buying the “far right” tag.
✍️ Jamie Jenkins
Stat of the Nation exists to cut through the spin and show the numbers as they are.
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Brilliant as always. More immigrants are wanted because the Welsh would rather live on benefits paid by the English