Why Sky News’ Farage Crime Rate Factcheck Gets the Maths Wrong
Sky slashed the figure from 22× to 3× by mixing up nationality and country of birth — a basic statistical error that flips the story on its head.
The Claim
Sky News ran a “factcheck” of Nigel Farage’s comments on sexual offence conviction rates among Afghans in England and Wales.
Their conclusion? That Afghans are three times more likely than UK-born people to be convicted of a sexual offence — not 22 times more likely as Farage claimed.
The problem is, their method contains a basic statistical error.
First — What Do We Know About the Number of Convictions?
From the Police National Computer (PNC), 2021–2023:
77 people with Afghan nationality convicted of sexual offences in England and Wales.
14,270 people with UK nationality convicted of sexual offences in the same period.
The Ministry of Justice warns that PNC nationality data isn’t perfect — it records only a person’s primary nationality, some records have no nationality, and offenders may appear more than once if sentenced in different years. But those limitations apply equally to any analysis of the data.
The key point: the raw numbers show more UK nationals convicted — but that’s simply because there are vastly more UK nationals than Afghan nationals in the population. To make a fair comparison, you need to calculate a rate — convictions divided by the size of each population group. And that’s where Sky’s maths collapses.
Country of Birth vs Nationality — Not the Same Thing
Sky’s analysis used country of birth for its population denominator.
But the convictions are by nationality.
That’s a fundamental mismatch.
Country of birth is fixed — you can’t change where you were born.
Nationality can change — through naturalisation, registration, or renunciation.
Tens of thousands of Afghan-born residents in the UK have become British citizens. They count as Afghan-born in the census, but as UK nationals in the conviction data. Using country of birth as the denominator for nationality-based convictions massively inflates the population figure — and slashes the crime rate.
The Best Population Data We Have
The 2021 Census (England & Wales) asked about:
Passports held (closest proxy to nationality, but not identical)
Key 2021 Census figures:
Born outside UK: 10.0m (16.8% of the population)
Non-UK passport holders: 5.9m (9.9% of the population)
Meaning ~4.1m people are foreign-born UK nationals.
The Annual Population Survey (APS) — the only ONS dataset that directly asks nationality — estimated ~13,000 Afghan nationals in 2021, close to the Census figure of 14,272 Afghan passport holders. By contrast, there were 85,693 Afghan-born — showing how badly a country-of-birth denominator would dilute the rate.
What Do the Rates Look Like?
Sky’s “3×” comes from comparing Afghan-born with UK-born.
The “22×” comes from comparing Afghan nationals with UK nationals — a better like-for-like measure.
If you use passport figures you get 17x but it is likely here the rate for the UK is inflated because around 8 million people have no passport, most likely UK-born/nationals. This means the UK passport population is too low, and the rate is artificially high.
Why Sky’s Method Falls Down
Sky’s numerator — convictions — is by nationality, but their denominator — population — is by country of birth.
If the Ministry of Justice had supplied convictions by country of birth, Afghan-born convictions would clearly be higher than 77, and UK-born convictions would be lower.
In short: Sky inflated the denominator with people who aren’t even in the numerator group — a textbook “apples and pears” comparison.
Sky Makes the Same Error in their London Analysis
Sky also examined Mr Farage’s claim that “40% of sexual assaults in London over the course of the last five years have been committed by those born overseas.”
They compared this with the 2021 Census figure showing 40.6% of London’s population was born outside the UK — and concluded that foreign-born individuals are slightly less likely to be charged with a sexual offence than those born in the UK.
But the problem is the same as in the Afghan example: the Metropolitan Police data Sky used relates to nationality, not country of birth.
The Met’s own figures show that 38% of charges for sexual offences (adjusted for unknown nationality) were against non-British nationals. Comparing this to the 40.6% foreign-born figure from the Census is the same apples-and-pears error.
If we use the right denominator — non-British nationals — the story changes completely:
APS 2021: 21.4% of London’s population were non-British nationals.
APS 2021 (ages 16–64): 26% were non-British nationals — a fairer comparison as this group is more likely to be criminally active.
Census 2021 passports held: Around 23% of Londoners had a foreign passport as their main passport.
If you compare nationality with nationality, the sexual offence crime rate among non-British nationals is far higher than their share of the population would suggest.
The Data Gap
If public debate is to be accurate, we need better data:
The ONS should resume regular nationality estimates, or
Police should collect and publish country of birth alongside nationality.
Population Growth Since 2021
Yes, the Afghan population has grown since 2021 — due to:
UK resettlement schemes (e.g. post-Taliban evacuation)
Continued small boat arrivals (Afghans are a top group)
That could lower the multiplier from 22×, but nowhere near down to 3×. Even accounting for growth, the number is likely still much closer to Farage’s figure than Sky’s. Remember, we’re not looking at crimes in 2024 or 2025 — the national figures cover 2021–23, and the London figures cover 2018–23.
The Takeaway
This isn’t about defending or attacking Farage. It’s about getting the maths right.
If your numerator is convictions by nationality, your denominator must be the population by nationality.
Sky’s approach — mixing nationality with country of birth — is a textbook statistical blunder. It dramatically understates rates for foreign nationals and misleads readers. The most likely reality? The true figure is far nearer the 22× end of the scale than the 3× Sky offered.
Update 15th August
After my challenge and the Centre for Migration Control’s intervention, Sky News have quietly updated their ‘factcheck’ — effectively withdrawing the dodgy analysis.
This is why I’ll keep calling out so-called reputable outlets when they mislead the public with bad statistics.
A previous version of this story stated that the Met Police, like the ONS, had advised using “country of birth” figures from the census as the best measure to use when calculating population size, because the data they provided to the CMC also used that variable.
Since publication, they have told us that that guidance was incorrect, due to “simple human error”, and that the data they provided to the CMC listed the “nationality” of the accused. The article has been updated to reflect that
The article has also been updated to make clear that the advice provided by the ONS was on the best way to determine the makeup of the UK population.
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So c.0.55% of Afghans have been convicted? If we believe that, and we also believe that c.1% of rapes result in conviction...