Behind Plaid Cymru’s victory and Reform’s surge sits a deeper story: Wales is splitting into two political electorates, and Labour no longer leads either.
What was the turnout? Did lots of young people turn out? I do wonder about Plaid - it doesn't have a particularly inspiring track record (although I admit that no political party has!). I have a trustafarian niece who moved over the border into north Wales, learnt Welsh and adopted a faux peasant lifestyle. She is ardently left-leaning and probably struggled between Plaid and the Greens. Having no concerns about steel works or coal mines or unemployment or poor schools/hospitals/infrastructure she can afford to vote for a party proposing some romantic notion of returning to the good old days of druids, dragons and handsome fighting princes. Which is what Plaid still represent underneath it all. If she lived in the real world would she vote differently? There are a lot of students and hippy English living in Wales who can afford to vote romantically. How many of the unemployed uneducated working class kids voted?
What was the turnout? Did lots of young people turn out? I do wonder about Plaid - it doesn't have a particularly inspiring track record (although I admit that no political party has!). I have a trustafarian niece who moved over the border into north Wales, learnt Welsh and adopted a faux peasant lifestyle. She is ardently left-leaning and probably struggled between Plaid and the Greens. Having no concerns about steel works or coal mines or unemployment or poor schools/hospitals/infrastructure she can afford to vote for a party proposing some romantic notion of returning to the good old days of druids, dragons and handsome fighting princes. Which is what Plaid still represent underneath it all. If she lived in the real world would she vote differently? There are a lot of students and hippy English living in Wales who can afford to vote romantically. How many of the unemployed uneducated working class kids voted?
I don't think Refom really had a good ground game in Wales either. I talk to people who just don't like Farage and just won't vote for him.
He did very badly on the who is a Welsh person question.
Wales wants change and like Westminster. I don't think we are getting very good candidates.
I wish people actually read manifestos too. Plaid sounded like Corbyn had written it!
We shall see how they do. As you say no one is really tribal for parties anymore, the peasants are being brutal.
Deliver or get out!
Great analysis Jamie, thanks.