Reeves ‘Lies’? Taxes Hit Record Highs — and 53,000 Illegal Migrants Vanish
Border chaos, higher taxes, failed climate policy — and the OBR letters that exposed the truth behind the Budget.
We have 53,000 illegal migrants missing, a deeper look at the real fiscal cost of current migration patterns, the return of Blair-era justice without juries, the biggest tax rises in modern history, COP30 showing emissions up 60%, and a Chancellor accused of misleading the public in the run-up to her own Budget.
Here’s what you may have missed.
🚨 Migration: Net Numbers Falling — But the Fiscal Time Bomb Is Growing
The latest immigration figures looked, at first glance, like good news for the Government. Net migration in the year to June 2025 fell to 204,000, down sharply from the “Boris wave” peaks of recent years. Much of that fall comes from Rishi Sunak’s tightening of work, study and dependent visas.
But underneath the headline, the picture is far more serious.
Firstly, 204,000 is still exceptionally high. In the 1980s and 90s, net migration typically sat below 100,000. Today’s “lower” figure is still double historic levels.
Second — and more importantly — the composition of migration continued to shift.
We continue with net emigration of Brits, especially among those aged 16 to 34. These are young workers, early-career professionals, and future high earners — exactly the people who support long-term tax revenues. Many are choosing countries offering better opportunities and lower taxes.
At the same time, non-EU immigration continues to exceed the number of Brits leaving. The inflow is concentrated in the same age bracket, but often into lower-skilled, lower-paid sectors, which means lower future tax contributions.
There is also the demographic side. Arrivals from countries such as India and Pakistan tend to have larger families, meaning the lifting of the two-child cap will push welfare spending higher for years to come.
Then came the most shocking number of the week — and it wasn’t even in the ONS release. A leaked Home Office figure shows the UK has now lost track of around 53,000 illegal migrants already here. A border system that claims its duty is to “protect the public” has no idea where tens of thousands of people are.
That is an ultimate failure. I’m surprised people aren’t resigning over this.
And despite all this, hotel use is rising again. 36,273 asylum seekers were in hotels at the end of September — a 13.2% increase in just three months.
The Government says hotels will end. But the reality is simple:
If arrivals continue and hotels close, people will be moved into homes and communities near you.
The only sustainable way to end hotel use is to stop the numbers coming in.
And the only way to achieve that is rapid removal to a safe third country for anyone arriving illegally.
If people know they will stay, more will come. If people know they will go, the numbers fall. Right now, the system signals the former.
⚖️ Blair’s Britain Returns: No Juries, £1.8bn Digital ID, No Consent
While attention was fixed on the Budget, the Government quietly revived two iconic Blair-era policies: removing juries from a wide range of trials, and costing the rollout of a £1.8bn digital ID system covering adults and children.
The timing was no accident. The “jury leak” landed on Budget Day, virtually guaranteeing it would be drowned out. But the substance matters more than the timing.
The claim that removing juries will “speed up justice” is simply incorrect. The biggest delays come from evidence collection and case preparation — not from jurors. Taking juries away won’t fix delays. It removes an ancient safeguard.
Digital ID, meanwhile, represents one of the largest expansions of state data power in decades. With children included, the amount of personal data held centrally will be vast — and vulnerable. The £1.8bn cost is only the start.
A major constitutional shift — quietly introduced.
💷 Reeves’ £26bn Tax Bombshell — The Highest Taxes Ever Recorded
Rachel Reeves’ first Budget delivered £26bn in tax rises, the biggest one-year tax increase in modern history.
Income tax thresholds were frozen for three more years. Welfare expansions were reinstated. And earlier reforms were reversed.
The result? 👉 Britain heads for the highest tax burden ever recorded.
Reeves justified this by saying a big “productivity downgrade” had smashed her fiscal headroom. But that claim is now falling apart.
The deterioration she described never actually happened — because the OBR letters released this week contradict the story Reeves told the public in the run-up to the Budget.
According to the OBR’s own correspondence (26 & 28 November):
On 17 September, the OBR told the Treasury that the productivity downgrade would be offset by higher wages, boosting receipts.
On 31 October, the OBR’s final pre-measures forecast showed Reeves had £4.2bn of headroom — meaning she was already meeting her fiscal rules.
At no stage did the OBR warn her rules were about to be breached.
And critically, the OBR confirms it never briefed the media, despite Reeves’ repeated public hints of a looming crisis.
Yet throughout October and November, Reeves repeatedly implied she faced a catastrophic deterioration — even after being told her headroom had improved.
The public narrative used to justify the biggest tax rise in decades simply does not match the OBR evidence.
This is not a technical disagreement — it is a failure of honesty.
🌍 30 Years of COP Summits — Emissions Up 60%, Bills Still Rising
COP30 finished with the usual declarations — but the numbers tell the real story.
Global emissions are up 60% since the first COP. This year’s summit was the most carbon-intensive ever, with 56,000 delegates flying into the Amazon. And UK households still face some of the highest energy bills in Europe.
Billions spent.
Targets missed.
Costs rising.
The gap between climate rhetoric and climate reality grows wider every year.
🧾 The Big Picture
A Government that:
Loses 53,000 migrants,
Exports taxpayers while importing higher fiscal costs,
Limits juries and expands digital surveillance,
Raises taxes on a narrative contradicted by the OBR,
Delivers rising emissions and rising household bills.
The theme is the same across every issue:
Weak delivery. Weak honesty. Weak leadership.
✍️ Jamie Jenkins
Stats Jamie | Stats, Facts & Opinions
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