Dr Hilary Gone, Whitty U-Turns, Labour’s Caerphilly Meltdown — and More Borrowing
The week Britain’s spin machine finally hit the wall — from bad data to bad debts.
This week on Stat of the Nation, the numbers once again cut through the noise. Debt climbed higher, inflation refused to fall, and Labour’s promises began to unravel — from Reeves hinting at tax rises to Starmer’s collapse in Wales.
Even the Covid architects are backtracking, with Chris Whitty finally admitting the outdoor rules made little sense — years after many of us said the same.
1️⃣ 💸 Economy — Another £20 billion … still no plan
Read: Another Month, Another £20 Billion – Labour’s Borrowing Spiral Continues
The Government added roughly £20 billion to the tab in a single month — the second-highest September on record — lifting national debt toward £3 trillion.
That isn’t “investment”; it’s consumption with interest. Debt-servicing now behaves like a full-sized department, quietly squeezing out the very services voters think they’re funding.
Six months in, borrowing tops £100 billion, driven by pay deals and inflation-linked contracts. As gilt rates normalise higher, interest eats a bigger share of every pound raised. The more we borrow to pay the interest on earlier borrowing, the less room there is for anything else.
💬 Borrowing ≠ investment. We’re funding today’s bills, not tomorrow’s growth — the textbook case of “perverse GDP.”
2️⃣ 📈 Inflation — 3.8 % (again) and why that still hurts
UK inflation 3.8% for the third month running — still higher than major European neighbours such as France (1.1%) and Germany (2.4%).
Three months at the same level isn’t stability — it’s stagnation. Inflation hasn’t fallen; it’s stuck high, and that’s bad news for the public finances. The longer it stays elevated, the more it drives up government borrowing costs, public-sector pay deals, and index-linked benefits and pensions.
Every 0.1% on the inflation rate adds billions to debt-interest payments, already running near record highs. It’s a vicious loop: prices hold firm, markets demand higher yields, and the Treasury pays more just to stand still.
At the same time, Labour’s new jobs tax — by raising employer National Insurance — has added yet another cost burden on businesses. That extra cost doesn’t disappear; it’s passed on to consumers, keeping prices higher for longer and embedding inflation across the economy.
🚨 Inflation hasn’t eased — it’s stuck — and Labour’s policies are helping to keep it there.
3️⃣ 💰 Taxes & Trust — Reeves’ income-tax trial balloon
Rachel Reeves is allegedly plotting an income-tax rise — breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge.”
Reports now suggest the Chancellor is actively considering an income-tax rise to plug a £30 billion black hole — despite Labour’s election pledge not to raise taxes on working people. It’s not being forced by events; it’s the result of her own choices.
Since taking office, Reeves has overseen soaring borrowing, ballooning day-to-day spending, and a sharp deterioration in the public finances. Now she’s reaching for the taxpayer to cover the gap. It’s not fiscal discipline — it’s damage control.
Rather than cutting waste, reforming the state, or prioritising investment that creates growth, Labour’s answer is always more tax. But raising income tax stifles growth, discourages investment, and drains confidence. Every extra pound taken from workers and businesses is a pound not spent, not invested, not used to create jobs.
❌ Reeves isn’t rescuing the economy — she’s taxing Britain to pay for her own mistakes.
4️⃣ 🗳 Voter realignment — Caerphilly breaks a century of habit
After more than a century of dominance, Labour have been wiped out in Caerphilly.
Their vote collapsed from 46 % to just 11 % — a political earthquake in Wales.
Read: After a Century, Labour Lose Their Stronghold — The Valleys Want Change
Turnout reached a record 50.4 %, signalling a real appetite for change. Plaid Cymru won with 47.4 %, Reform took 36 %, and Labour were left trailing in third.
In my view, this result shows that Keir Starmer is finished. The cracks are showing not just in Westminster but across Wales — a country that once formed the backbone of Labour’s support. A century-long monopoly has fallen, and it’s hard to see how they rebuild trust in the communities they’ve neglected for decades.
With proportional representation coming to next year’s Senedd elections, this shift could prove historic. Once voters realise change is possible, they rarely go back.
💥 The Valleys built Labour. Now the people are demolishing what they built.
5️⃣ 📺 Media & Accountability — Dr Hilary exits; trust doesn’t follow him
Read: Dr Hilary Leaves ITV — Years After…
Dr Hilary’s departure marks more than the end of a TV career — it’s the closing act of an era defined by Covid misinformation broadcast as fact.
Millions remember the morning he claimed “90 % of Covid patients were unvaccinated” — when the official NHS data showed it was closer to one-third. Those headlines weren’t small slips; they shaped public opinion and fuelled division at a critical time.
I called this out while it was happening, pointing to the published figures that told a very different story.
For months, the mainstream narrative drowned out the data — and only now, as audiences switch off in droves, is the true cost becoming clear: trust lost, permanently.
People won’t forget being misled or shouted down for questioning plainly wrong numbers. That’s why the landscape has shifted. Viewers now turn to independent analysis, open data, and accountability — the very principles behind Stat Of The Nation.
📊 When misinformation goes unchallenged, trust dies. When you challenge it with evidence, people remember.
6️⃣ 😷 Covid Rules — Whitty admits outdoor limits were too strict
Chris Whitty told the Covid Inquiry the first lockdown rules were “too strict” on outdoor time and children’s play:
“I couldn’t see the logic of that from an infection-control point of view.”
That admission lands late but loud. Science always showed outdoor transmission risk was minimal compared with indoor spread. Yet the policy banned benches, taped up playgrounds, and shut down community sports — punishing the very activities that kept people healthy.
I was furious at the time. As chairman of a local football club, it was absurd to watch children being barred from playing outside while supermarkets and offices stayed open. Stopping kids from exercising in the fresh air was never “following the science”; it was fear dressed up as control.
There was no clear logic — and, truthfully, there was little logic to most of the rules. I said so then, in real time, not years later at an inquiry.
You can read my 2021 piece Plan B? — where I warned that blanket restrictions and alarm-driven messaging would do more harm than good.
🌳 We closed parks for “safety” and stopped children from playing sports. It wasn’t science — it was theatre.
💭 Final Thought
Another week where the storylines and the statistics couldn’t be further apart.
Borrowing continues to climb while the promises of “fiscal responsibility” unravel. Inflation remains stuck, and the Chancellor’s answer is to raise taxes to pay for her own overspending.
In Wales, a century of one-party rule has finally cracked, showing that voters are ready to demand something different. And even the leading voices of the Covid era are now admitting what many of us said years ago — much of the policy was never logical in the first place.
Across government, media, and institutions, the pattern is the same: spin eventually collapses under the weight of the facts.
The truth is catching up — and it’s doing so faster every week.
✍️ Jamie Jenkins
📢 Call to Action
If this helped cut through the noise, share it and subscribe free at statsjamie.co.uk — get the stats before the spin, straight to your inbox (no algorithms).
📚 If you found this useful, you might also want to read:
👉 High Taxes and Record Migration: The Real Boris Legacy — He’s back in the spotlight, predicting a Tory revival, but Britain is still living with the consequences of his time in office.
Stat of the Nation exists to cut through the spin and show the numbers as they are.
If you value clear, fact-driven analysis — please share this roundup with others. And hit subscribe below to get the stats first, every week.
📲 Follow me here for more daily updates:
I remember seeing Hilary on the morning show and couldn't believe what I was watching. He was demonstrating how to do resuscitation Covid style. He literally put a folded towel over the face of the person/dummy who needed to be resuscitated. He said it was what the WHO recommended. So suffocation of a patent was the new normal. I didn't know whether to laugh or cry.
Thank you for all your work Jamie. Glad to see the back of the odious Dr Hilary. His jaw dropping misinformation such as swimming while wearing a face nappy were beyond belief!