Britain Is Going Backwards Per Person — Reeves Is Misleading You
Following the release of the latest GDP numbers, Rachel Reeves has again insisted the government is “on the right economic plan to build a stronger and more secure economy… creating the conditions for growth”. But the figures don’t read like a plan at all — they read like an economy drifting, weakening, and being managed into decline.
Because while headline GDP was up just 0.1% in Q4 2025, the number that matters for living standards is worse: real GDP per head fell again, meaning output per person is now down for two consecutive quarters. If you look at the economy on a per-person basis, Britain is now in recession-like territory — even if the technical “two quarters of falling total GDP” label hasn’t landed.
🧾 What GDP Is (And Why The Headline Can Mislead)
GDP is the value of everything produced in the UK — the goods we make and the services we sell. It’s the “scoreboard” politicians use to claim progress.
But headline GDP doesn’t tell you whether people are better off. When the population rises, the country can “grow” while the average person goes backwards. That’s why GDP per head matters — it cuts through the spin and tells you what’s happening to living standards.
🧍♂️💷 What Low Growth Feels Like In Real Life
When growth is this weak, the consequences aren’t abstract — they’re everyday.
Low growth means:
employers stop hiring, then cut hours, then cut jobs
wage growth weakens, and real pay struggles to rise
households pull back spending — fewer non-essentials, fewer nights out
businesses delay investment because demand looks uncertain
the government’s tax take disappoints, while spending pressures rise
This is why the public can be told “GDP is up” while still feeling like nothing is improving.
🏭 Where The Economy Is Struggling (And Why It Matters)
The sector breakdown shows why this GDP “growth” doesn’t feel broad-based.
In Q4:
Services were flat — zero growth in the UK’s biggest sector
Construction fell sharply (-2.1%) — and when building slows, it hits jobs and local supply chains fast
The growth came mainly from production (+1.2%) — a narrower base than ministers would like to admit
And within services, the pattern is revealing:
State-heavy areas like public administration/defence and health were up
But professional, scientific & technical activity — a core wealth-creating area — was down
That’s not the shape of a strong recovery. It’s the shape of an economy where growth is thin, and weakness is concentrated in areas that underpin jobs and investment.
🏛️ The Public Sector Prop-Up Problem
When growth is weak, governments can still keep the headline number afloat by expanding state activity — more spending, more public sector output, more administration.
But that isn’t how you sustainably raise living standards. If the private, productive base is soft, you don’t get lasting wage growth — you get higher fiscal pressure, more borrowing risk, and eventually more tax rises.
Without a thriving private sector, there’s no sustainable public sector.
🏦 Interest Rates: Reeves Wants The Credit — But It Isn’t Hers
Reeves is also claiming: “Thanks to the choices we’ve made, we’ve seen six interest rate cuts and inflation is falling…”
But interest rates are not set in Downing Street — they’re set by the Bank of England, responding to inflation and global conditions. The idea that a Chancellor can claim personal credit for “six cuts” is pure political theatre. Central banks move broadly in sync internationally, and the Bank cannot ignore the direction of travel in the US without risking pressure on sterling and imported inflation.
And on inflation, let’s be brutally clear: when Reeves took over, inflation was 2.0%. It’s now higher. So even on her own preferred measure, it’s worse under her watch — not better.
In other words: any easing is a central bank call driven by the data, not a medal for ministers.
✅ Bottom Line: Britain Needs Momentum — Not Spin
Reeves says the plan is working. But the data says the UK is barely growing — and per person, we’re going backwards.
This country doesn’t need one-off 0.1% headlines. It needs a steady run of broad-based growth that lifts living standards — and until that happens, “recovery” will remain something politicians talk about, not something the public feels.
📅 Coming Up Next
We’ve got the latest jobs, inflation, and public sector borrowing figures — the real scoreboard for living standards and the state of the public finances.
Stick with Stat Of The Nation, and I’ll tell you, in plain English, exactly what’s going on — before the spin merchants get to it.
✍️ Jamie Jenkins
Stats Jamie | Stats, Facts & Opinions
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Great analysis as usual Jamie. I'd rather take the word of Schroders and Ratcliffe than Reeves and Starmer anyday.