Welsh Labour’s “Never Again” Problem: 1 in 4 Ex-Voters Say They’re Done
Poll after poll shows Welsh Labour’s dominance collapsing — and the 2026 Senedd election shaping up as a race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.
2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year in Welsh politics. Wales elects its devolved parliament — the Senedd — and for the first time in a generation, the outcome is genuinely uncertain. Welsh Labour has dominated Welsh politics for decades, governing continuously since devolution. But poll after poll now shows that dominance being steadily dismantled, with voters breaking away in large numbers and the party’s grip on Wales weakening fast.
That context matters, because what follows is no longer a story about a temporary wobble or a mid-term slump. It’s about a governing party losing the loyalty that once made it electorally indestructible.
Welsh Labour’s problem in this latest polling isn’t just that voters are drifting. It’s that a growing share is hardening into something far more dangerous: permanent rejection.
Among people who have voted Labour before, a new More in Common poll finds that of those who wouldn’t vote Labour today, around one in four say they will never vote Labour again. That isn’t hesitation. It isn’t waiting for a better leader or a nicer manifesto. It’s a door closing — and it explains why Welsh politics suddenly looks volatile in a way it hasn’t for years.
🗳️ Where Labour voters are going
The clearest way to understand Labour’s predicament is to look at what has happened to its own voters.
Among people in Wales who voted Labour at the last general election, barely four in ten say they would still vote Labour now. The rest are spread across the field: many have moved to Plaid Cymru, others to Reform UK, with a slightly smaller but still meaningful number drifting to the Greens and Liberal Democrats. A large group of former Labour voters now say they don’t know who they would vote for at all.
This isn’t a clean swing from Labour to one alternative. It’s fragmentation — and fragmentation is what happens when a dominant party loses authority, and voters stop believing it deserves automatic support.
👤 Leadership and recognition: dislike at the top, fog underneath
Leadership ratings help explain why Labour’s vote is not simply moving in one direction.
Keir Starmer is deeply unpopular in Wales, with far more people saying he is doing a bad job than a good one. That toxicity at the UK level bleeds directly into Welsh Labour’s brand, whether the party likes it or not.
At the same time, many Welsh political figures outside Labour suffer from a different problem: large chunks of the electorate don’t know who they are. High “don’t know” ratings for senior Welsh opposition politicians suggest low recognition, low cut-through, or both.
That combination — a governing party people actively dislike, and alternatives many people barely recognise — is fertile ground for disruption. It creates space for parties with clearer messages, sharper branding, and a stronger sense of identity.
📊 A two-horse race: Reform UK vs Plaid Cymru
Once you strip away the noise, the shape of the next Senedd election is becoming clearer.
When you remove respondents who say they don’t know or would not vote, this More in Common poll shows Reform UK in the lead, ahead of Plaid Cymru, with Labour pushed into third place.
In a recent YouGov poll, Plaid Cymru came out on top instead. That contrast is important. You should never read too much into any single poll. Different methodologies, timings, and samples will produce different winners on the day.
But what matters is the direction of travel across polls.
Whether Reform leads Plaid or Plaid leads Reform in a given snapshot, the consistent picture is this: Welsh Labour is no longer dominant, and the next Senedd election is increasingly shaping up as a contest between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, with Labour squeezed behind them.
That alone represents a historic shift in Welsh politics.
🏴 Plaid Cymru: the “safe change” button
As Labour declines, Plaid Cymru has become a destination for some disillusioned voters. But it’s worth being clear about what kind of “change” Plaid actually offers.
Plaid supported the expansion of the Senedd, backing more politicians and higher costs at a time when trust in politics is already stretched. It has been a strong supporter of the 20-mile-an-hour speed limit, one of the most unpopular policies introduced by the Welsh Government. And it has been openly on record in favour of higher immigration and looser border approaches, despite mounting pressure on housing, public services, and infrastructure.
On many of the most controversial decisions of recent years, Plaid did not oppose Welsh Labour — it supported it.
That makes Plaid attractive as a low-risk protest option. But it also raises a serious question: if voters are rejecting the direction Wales has taken, how much change do they really get from a party that backed so much of that direction?
🔥 Final thought
This polling doesn’t just show Welsh Labour in trouble. It shows a political era ending.
Former Labour voters are scattering. A significant share says they are never coming back. And across multiple polls — even where the winner differs — the same pattern keeps appearing: Reform UK and Plaid Cymru are emerging as the two main contenders, with Labour no longer the default party of government.
The 2026 Senedd election is no longer about a tired Labour hegemony versus a fragmented opposition.
It’s about what comes next — and whether Wales chooses continuity dressed up as change, or a more fundamental break from a political model that many voters now believe has run its course.
Wales needs an alternative that is pro-business, pro-work, serious about living within its means, and honest about limits — including limits on migration and limits on what the Welsh state can sustainably promise.
In that context, Reform offers a clearer opportunity for change than Plaid — because independence plus looser borders is not a plan for prosperity. It’s a recipe for a bigger bill.
✍️ Jamie Jenkins
Stats Jamie | Stats, Facts & Opinions
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Super sharp analysis of the fragmentaiton. The 1 in 4 never again stat is brutal because it removes any comeback path through leadership changes or policy tweaks. When voters scatter to Plaid, Reform, Greens, and dont knows simultaneously, thats a collapse of institutional trust not just party preference. Curious how long it takes other regions to follow this pattern.
Great article Jamie. Wales has always had great communities and pride in being Welsh, presumably that is why Plaid still garner support even though their policies are national suicide. I'm hoping Reform can buck this trend as the best option for Wales and the UK to regain their countries from the mad cow disease that has infiltrated our politician's brains.