The Great British Betrayal: How a Fake Crisis Justified a Real Tax Raid
New OBR data reveals the "Fiscal Black Hole" was a myth used to justify record taxes, while British workers are raided to fund a welfare spending spree.
It has been an extraordinary week in British politics. Not because of one dramatic moment, but because the government’s carefully constructed story has fallen apart, piece by piece. What began as a solemn warning from Chancellor Rachel Reeves has exploded into a full-blown scandal about honesty, credibility, and whether the British public were played for fools before being handed the highest tax bill in modern history.
🏚️ The Setup: “The Cupboard is Bare”
Reeves set the trap early. She spoke repeatedly about “very challenging” public finances, weaker productivity, and impossible choices. The message was drilled home: the cupboard was bare, the previous government burned the house down, and she had zero room to manoeuvre. Most people took her at her word. Why wouldn’t they? You don’t expect a Chancellor to gamble with the truth when your mortgage is on the line.
🗡️ The Pivot: The Budget Betrayal
Then came the hammer blow. Reeves delivered £26 billion in tax rises and presented them as the only way to save the country.
The Stealth Attack: Tax thresholds frozen for years (quietly picking more from workers’ pockets).
The Pension Raid: Taxes tightened on the very savings people rely on.
The “New Normal”: This tax raid will lead to the highest tax burden in history, dressed up as “responsibility.”
But then the narrative crumbled. The OBR took the unprecedented step of writing to the Treasury Select Committee to set out exactly what the Chancellor knew. The letter revealed a timeline that shattered the official story, proving Reeves knew far more than she had told the public.
🚨 CAUGHT RED-HANDED: The Data They Didn’t Want You to See
The OBR’s own timeline exposes the uncomfortable truth: the government’s main fiscal rule was actually being met BEFORE the Budget.
The Secret Stabiliser: Stronger wage growth was already lifting revenues and balancing the books. The “black hole” was filling itself.
The Hidden Headroom: The government knew the position was tight, but stable. They chose to ignore this.
The Verdict: The “crisis” was a choice, not a necessity. They painted a picture of doom to justify a tax raid they wanted to do anyway.
💷 The Real Agenda: Robbing Workers to Fund Welfare
If there was no “Black Hole” to fill, where is the money actually going? The Budget reveals the uncomfortable answer: this wasn’t about economics; it was about politics.
The Chancellor didn’t raise taxes to save the nation from ruin. She raised them to look after the Labour Party backbenches. The OBR confirms that public spending will be £32 billion higher in 2029/30 than previously forecast. This surge isn’t for infrastructure or growth; it is largely driven by higher welfare spending, including the reversal of disability benefit reforms and the removal of the two-child limit.
The choice she made was stark:
Take from: The pay packets of British workers (via stealth taxes).
Give to: The welfare state (via a spending spree).
Basically, the government has chosen to tax British workers more to hand out more in benefits. They manufactured a crisis to disguise a massive redistribution of wealth as an economic rescue mission.
🥫 The “Kick the Can” Con
The Chancellor claims she has “balanced the books,” but look closely at the dates. She only promises to meet her debt targets in 2029/30. That is years away.
It is a “token effort” that grants her permission to borrow billions now, while pushing the moment of reckoning to a date when she likely won’t even be in the job. It’s fiscal nimbyism: “Borrow today, let someone else pay tomorrow.” By meeting these rules only at the very end of the forecast, she has effectively “over-taxed” you today to build a political war chest for the next election.
💸 LOSING CONTROL: The £92bn Borrowing Binge
While the Chancellor lectures the public on “fixing the foundations,” the data tells a different story: she has completely lost her grip on the national credit card. My recent analysis uncovers the scale of this failure, showing that since taking office, Rachel Reeves has borrowed £92 billion more than the OBR originally forecast.
This isn’t an “inherited” problem; it is a new, self-made hole. By overshooting borrowing targets by such a massive margin, she has proven that she isn’t just failing to pay down the debt—she is adding to it at a record pace. The narrative that she is a “prudent” Chancellor cleaning up a mess is contradicted by the fact that she is actively digging the hole deeper every single day.
🎭 The Consequences of Deception
This wasn’t a victimless crime. By shouting “Fire!” in a crowded theatre, Reeves shaped the national conversation and panicked the public.
Speculation ran wild.
Headlines screamed crisis.
Investors got spooked.
📉 The Market Penalty: A Self-Inflicted Wound
This strategy of “talking down” Britain carried a dangerous price tag. In the weeks running up to the Budget, the constant drumbeat of doom spooked the markets. Gilt yields—the cost of government borrowing—ticked up. The Irony: In her desperate bid to look “stable,” the Chancellor’s own doom-mongering created the very volatility she promised to end.
🏛️ The Political Fallout
The Prime Minister tried to defend the indefensible. But in PMQs, the narrative shattered. The opposition pointed out the obvious: the OBR data simply does not support the government’s story.
Starmer denied it, but the question is now burning: Why did they only tell us half the truth?
🏠 The Real-World Cost (And Why You Should Be Angry)
The political consequences are noise; the public consequences are painful.
Pension Panic: The CEO of St James’s Place revealed that the government’s fear-mongering caused savers to pull money out of pensions in a panic. Real people lost real future security because of a political narrative.
The Silent Assassin: The freeze on tax thresholds is a “Stealth Tax” designed to hurt you more every time you get a pay rise. It is a tax hike that pretends not to be one.
Rules for Thee, But Not for Me This episode highlights a bitter reality: It is easy to gamble when it is someone else’s money. Rachel Reeves gets paid the same salary—and keeps her gold-plated MP pension—regardless of the billions she costs the taxpayer or the market jitters she causes. While the public bears the brunt of eroded savings and higher mortgages, those pulling the levers are insulated from the damage. They break the economy; you pick up the tab.
🔚 Conclusion: The Trust Gap is Now a Chasm
This is the thread running through the entire week:
A Chancellor who highlighted the doom and hid the bloom.
A Budget built on a foundation of omission.
A Prime Minister forced to defend the indefensible.
The issue isn’t just the money—it’s the manipulation. If a government isn’t straight with you when taking your cash, why should you trust them to spend it? The “Black Hole” might have been a matter of debate, but the trust gap they’ve opened up is very, very real.
✍️ Jamie Jenkins
Stats Jamie | Stats, Facts & Opinions
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Thank you. Do you think this Government's plan all along has been to shift the UK to a Swedish style economy with high tax and generous welfare? In other words the high tax is not a short term solution to a temporary economic problem but something intended, by this government, to be a permanent feature.