The Final Days Of Welsh Labour. Now Plaid And Reform Battle For Wales
The final FMQs felt like the closing scene of an old order — and the latest poll suggests Welsh Labour’s decline is becoming entrenched.
For 27 years, Welsh Labour has been the default party of power in Cardiff Bay. But the final FMQs before the May election did not feel like a government closing strongly. They felt like a machine running on fumes.
Then came the latest ITV Cymru Wales YouGov MRP poll, produced with Cardiff University: Plaid Cymru on 33%, Reform UK on 27%, Labour on 13%, Greens on 12%, Conservatives on 7% and Liberal Democrats on 5%. On that model, Plaid would win 43 seats, Reform 30 and Labour just 12. Most damaging of all, Eluned Morgan is on course to lose her own seat in Ceredigion Penfro.
That is not just another bad poll for Labour. It looks more like the hardening of a political collapse.
⚠️ The Last FMQs Felt Like The End
The final FMQs of this Senedd did not feel like the close of a government still firmly in command. They felt like a Parliament bracing for life after Welsh Labour dominance.
That matters because the latest poll suggests that instinct was right. This no longer looks like routine frustration with an incumbent. It looks like the point where a tired governing machine runs out of authority, at the same time the electorate runs out of patience.
📉 This No Longer Looks Like A Bad Spell For Labour
The most important thing in the latest poll is not that Labour is under pressure. We already knew that.
The point is that the pressure is no longer easing. Back in January, ITV Cymru Wales had Labour in fourth place on 10%, level with the Conservatives, while Plaid was on 37% and Reform on 23%. The latest poll moves Labour up to 13% and back into third — but that is hardly a recovery when Plaid still leads on 33%, and Reform has climbed to 27%. Labour’s projected seat total rises from 8 in January to 12 now, but it is still nowhere near the real contest for power.
That is why this poll hurts. It does not reveal some sudden new danger. It shows that the danger is becoming embedded.
After nearly three decades in charge, Welsh Labour is no longer being judged by whether it can win well. It is being judged by whether it can avoid humiliation. Third place is not a wobble. Repeated polling like this makes it look like something worse: a party losing not just votes, but its claim to be Wales’ default governing force.
🧨 Starmer’s Shambles Is Dragging Welsh Labour Down Too
Welsh Labour has a second problem: Keir Starmer.
This is not just a Cardiff Bay story. It is a Westminster drag effect too. In January, YouGov found that 67% of Welsh adults thought the UK government was doing a bad job, while only 10% thought it was doing a good job. Welsh adults also said Starmer was doing a bad job as Prime Minister by 74% to 15%. Even among 2024 Welsh Labour voters, only 24% said either the UK or Welsh governments were doing a good job.
That matters because Welsh Labour no longer gets to run as a separate brand untouched by Westminster. It now carries the baggage of government at both ends of the M4.
So when Welsh Labour asks voters for one more chance, it is doing so with a Labour government in London that large numbers of Welsh voters already think is failing. That is a toxic combination for an already struggling party in Cardiff Bay.
🎯 A First Minister On Course To Lose Her Own Seat
Every bad poll has numbers. But some polls also have a symbol.
This one does. Eluned Morgan is on course to lose her seat in Ceredigion Penfro, while Labour would fail to elect anyone in four constituencies under ITV’s model.
That cuts through because it tells voters something bigger than a percentage swing ever could. When a sitting First Minister is projected to lose her own seat, you are no longer talking about a difficult campaign. You are talking about a governing party whose authority is starting to break down.
For years, Welsh Labour’s strength rested not just on support but on familiarity. It was the permanent fixture. The known quantity. The party people assumed would still be standing when the dust settled.
But if even the First Minister’s own seat looks unsafe, that old assumption is dead. This is what political eras look like when they begin to end.
💷 More Seats. More Cost. More Fragmentation.
This election is not just being fought in a volatile political climate. It is also being fought under a radically changed system.
From 7 May 2026, the Senedd will expand from 60 Members to 96 — a 60% increase. Wales will move to 16 constituencies, each electing six Members, and voters will have one vote under a closed proportional list system. The Senedd says these changes reflect its larger responsibilities, including full law-making powers and some tax powers.
That means a bigger political institution, and a costlier one too. The Senedd’s FAQ says the total cost is “not yet known”, but also says the Senedd Commission’s 2025-26 budget proposed a 16% increase in spending to support the 60% increase in Members.
Politically, the timing is striking. Wales is being asked to fund a much bigger political class just as faith in the old one is wearing thin.
🚨 Final Thought
The final FMQs of this Senedd felt like an ending because they probably were. Not just the end of a parliamentary term. The possible end of an era in Welsh politics.
For years, Welsh Labour looked too entrenched to lose Wales. Now it looks too tired to save itself. The latest poll puts Plaid Cymru on course to be the largest party. Reform is closing fast. Labour is stuck in third. And the First Minister herself is on course to lose her seat.
Polls are not votes. But some polls tell you something bigger than who is up and who is down. They tell you when an old political order is running out of road.
And in Wales, that moment now looks very close
✍️ Jamie Jenkins
Stats Jamie | Stats, Facts & Opinions
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