The 50,000 Small Boat Milestone Keir Starmer Didn’t Want This Week
He’s not smashing the gangs — he’s smashing record numbers.
From 5 July 2024 — when Labour entered Downing Street — to 11 August 2025, 50,271 people have crossed the English Channel in small boats.
That’s 13,925 more than the equivalent 13-month period before Labour took power.
And in 2025 alone, crossings are 47% higher than at the same point last year.
It’s a milestone that will dominate the political news cycle this week — and one that raises the same question the public has been asking for years: if this is “under control”, what does “out of control” look like?
The Trend That Keeps Rising
This isn’t a one-off surge.
In 2018, Channel crossings were measured in hundreds.
By 2022, they hit a record 45,774.
The first seven months of 2025 have already outpaced every previous year-to-date figure.
Weather plays a role, but it doesn’t explain the steady upward curve. Smuggling gangs have adapted to every crackdown — using smaller boats, varied departure points, and sheer volume to overwhelm Border Force.
The Politics
Labour points to its “one in, one out” deal with France as proof it’s acting, but it ignores the bigger question: why are so many willing to bypass France to get here in the first place?
The answer is simple — because the UK is still one of the most generous destinations in Europe for those arriving illegally.
Once here, you get:
Free housing — often in hotels.
Free healthcare.
Legal aid to fight removal.
Cash allowances.
For many, that’s still worth risking the Channel crossing — even if they’ve already reached safety in France. The reality is that the offer acts as a pull factor, and until that changes, the flow will continue.
The Plan That Doesn’t Add Up
Last week I showed why the government’s “swap” policy isn’t a deterrent:
👉 Channel Crisis: Record 25,436 Crossings — and the Plan? A Swap That Changes Nothing
Here’s the short version:
At 50 returns a week, the scheme can’t even keep pace with one week’s arrivals.
For every one person returned, 16 more arrive.
Net change? Zero.
It’s a political talking point — not a border policy.
The Price Tag
Even if the plan worked tomorrow, the cost of what’s already happened is staggering.
As I detailed here:
👉 Britain’s Border Crisis: 600,000 Workers to Cover the Cost of Asylum Accommodation
Asylum accommodation alone cost £4.7 billion in 2023/24 — about £41,000 per person per year.
That’s the entire annual tax bill of around 600,000 British workers.
And accommodation is just the start. Healthcare, legal aid, education for dependants, and the bureaucracy to manage it all add billions more.
The Security Risk Nobody Wants to Discuss
This isn’t just a numbers crisis — it’s a security one.
Intelligence reports have confirmed that small boat routes have been used by individuals with suspected links to terrorism and organised crime. Some have entered the UK, disappeared into the system, and only surfaced after arrest for serious offences — including sexual crimes against children.
Many destroy their ID documents during the crossing, making background checks almost impossible.
When the asylum system is overloaded, the priority becomes processing cases — not digging deeper into who people really are. And in that chaos, the most dangerous individuals are often the easiest to miss.
Meanwhile in Greece…
On 27 July 2025, Greece suspended all asylum claims from irregular sea arrivals for three months.
Anyone arriving illegally from North Africa is now detained without the right to request asylum. No interviews. No legal limbo. The message is clear: if you come illegally, you won’t stay.
Greece took the decision after 22,867 sea arrivals this year — less than half the UK’s 2025 small boat total so far.
They’ve:
Suspended claims.
Deployed naval patrols near Libya.
Begun building closed camps.
Started talks with Libya for joint enforcement.
Whether you agree with the approach or not, it sends a message — and acts on it. The UK, by contrast, keeps talking about deterrence while housing record arrivals in hotels.
Full analysis here:
👉 Greece Suspends Asylum and Sends a Message to Europe: Enough
And in Portugal…
In a sharp contrast to Britain’s still “soft-touch” approach, Portuguese authorities acted immediately when 38 Moroccan migrants landed on an Algarve beach after a five-day sea journey — during which four reportedly died.
Within days, a local court ruled they must return voluntarily within 20 days or face forced expulsion.
Portugal’s rapid detention, processing, and repatriation stands in stark contrast to the UK’s handling of small boat arrivals — where individuals are often placed in hotels for months or years at taxpayer expense, with removal cases dragging on indefinitely.
The Bigger Picture
50,271 isn’t just a number. It’s:
A record pace of arrivals.
A policy that doesn’t shift the balance.
A cost already in the billions.
A system that creates real security vulnerabilities.
The public’s patience is finite.
If the government’s approach doesn’t change — and fast — the only numbers that will keep falling are public trust and political credibility.
When Keir Starmer promised growth for Britain, this isn’t the kind of growth the public had in mind.
Because right now, he’s not smashing the gangs — he’s smashing record numbers.
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