Sky News Admits Its Farage Factcheck Was Wrong
After I highlighted the statistical blunder, Sky has shifted its position.
Earlier this week I published Why Sky News’ Farage Crime Rate Factcheck Gets the Maths Wrong, setting out how Sky had misled their readers with faulty analysis.
The heart of the problem was simple:
Convictions were recorded by nationality.
But Sky divided those convictions by a population denominator based on country of birth.
That’s an apples-and-pears comparison that slashed the multiplier from around 22× to 3×.
I showed why this was wrong, and why the truth is far closer to Farage’s original claim than Sky’s attempted “debunk.”
Sky Backtracks
Following publication of my analysis — and a challenge by the Centre for Migration Control — Sky News has updated their original factcheck.
That’s a major climbdown. Sky’s original graphics and headlines trumpeted the “3× not 22×” claim. Now they accept the comparison they used was flawed.
The Numbers That Matter
Convictions (2021–23, Police National Computer)
• 77 Afghan nationals convicted of sexual offences.
• 14,270 UK nationals convicted of sexual offences.Population (APS & Census 2021)
• ~13k Afghan nationals (APS).
• 53.6m UK nationals (APS).
• 85.7k Afghan-born (Census).
• 49.6m UK-born (Census).
That gives you:
22× higher conviction rate (Afghan vs UK nationals).
3× higher conviction rate (Afghan-born vs UK-born).
Sky’s “factcheck” highlighted only the 3× — but only by mixing nationality convictions with country-of-birth population.
Digging Out of a Hole
Sky are now trying to dig themselves out of a hole by pointing out that Farage himself referred to “country of birth.” But that’s beside the point.
The issue here is Sky’s own factcheck. They took convictions by nationality, divided them by country-of-birth figures, and led with the 3× headline. That’s bad maths, and it misled their readers.
What Sky News has said
A previous version of this story stated that the Met Police, like the ONS, had advised using “country of birth” figures from the census as the best measure to use when calculating population size, because the data they provided to the CMC also used that variable.
Since publication, they have told us that that guidance was incorrect, due to “simple human error”, and that the data they provided to the CMC listed the “nationality” of the accused. The article has been updated to reflect that
The article has also been updated to make clear that the advice provided by the ONS was on the best way to determine the makeup of the UK population.
👉 In other words, the central claim of Sky’s factcheck has collapsed. They’ve admitted their own numbers were wrong — exactly as I highlighted in my original analysis.
Why This Matters
This isn’t about defending or attacking Nigel Farage. It’s about holding major broadcasters to account when they present flawed statistics as authoritative “factchecks.”
When Sky News misrepresents numbers, they don’t just mislead their readers — they skew the entire debate. And that’s why I’ll keep calling it out.
👉 Read the original analysis in full: Why Sky News’ Farage Crime Rate Factcheck Gets the Maths Wrong
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