Reform Leads the Polls — So Why Are Local Elections Being Delayed?
29 elections postponed, Reform on top in the polls, and growing questions over how democracy is being managed.
Last week, we learned that local elections scheduled for May in 29 English councils have been postponed. Then over the weekend, we learned that Labour’s leadership had stepped in to block Andy Burnham’s selection in a Manchester by-election.
Individually, each decision is defended as “pragmatic”. Together, they reflect a wider problem: democracy being treated as something to manage, not something to face.
🗳️ 29 elections postponed — democracy deferred
The government has confirmed that local elections in 29 English councils due to take place this May will no longer go ahead, citing the need to support local government reorganisation.
The policy aim is to abolish parts of England’s two-tier system of district and county councils and replace them with new unitary authorities, with elections for those bodies expected in 2027 and full implementation by 2028.
That may be the administrative justification. But the democratic effect is immediate: voters in those areas lose the election they were expecting, with no replacement vote this year.
This is not a marginal adjustment. Elections were long scheduled, campaigns were expected, and voters were preparing to pass judgement. Instead, the ballot has simply been removed.
⏱️ Why now?
The timing of this decision matters.
Labour won the general election in July 2024. The existence of these local elections was well known. The ambition to reorganise local government was not a late discovery.
If postponement was genuinely unavoidable, it raises an obvious question: why has it taken until 2026 — just months before polling day — to act?
Late intervention turns what could have been an orderly, transparent transition into something reactive. And when elections are cancelled at short notice, it inevitably raises questions about whether administrative necessity is the whole story.
That brings us to the political backdrop.
📊 Polls backdrop — Reform consistently leads nationally
Across recent national polling, Reform UK is no longer a fringe force. It is consistently leading nationally.
A recent MRP-style projection published in mid-January placed Reform on around 31%, ahead of the Conservatives on around 21% and Labour on around 17%.
And in a fresh Westminster voting-intention poll published just days ago, Reform again topped the table on around 26–27%, ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.
Polls will always vary by methodology. But the pattern is clear: Reform is regularly at or near the top of national polls.
In normal circumstances, that level of support would be expected to translate into significant gains in local elections, particularly in low-turnout contests where dissatisfaction with the main parties tends to be expressed most strongly.
🧱 Who benefits from postponement — incumbents across the board
It is important to be clear about how these postponements play out politically.
Most of the 29 postponed councils are Labour-run — reported as 19 Labour-held councils, or 21 Labour-led councils if Labour administrations in no-overall-control authorities are included.
However, when you look beyond the number of councils to the number of councillors affected, the picture becomes more nuanced.
Some of the largest authorities involved are Conservative-run, particularly at the county level. As a result, while Labour dominates by council count, Conservatives benefit heavily in terms of councillors remaining in post, simply because their councils are larger.
Across the postponed areas as a whole, around 650 councillors will now remain in office longer than voters were promised, spanning Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green and independent representatives.
The common factor is not party colour. It is incumbency.
Sitting councillors across the political spectrum benefit from delayed accountability, while voters lose the chance to pass judgment as scheduled.
🧨 Seven-year terms stretch democratic consent
In several county councils last elected in 2021, the consequences are particularly stark.
Because elections have already been delayed once in some areas, further postponements mean certain councillors could now serve up to seven years without facing voters again — nearly double a normal electoral cycle.
Seven-year gaps between elections are not a technical footnote. They weaken scrutiny, reduce responsiveness, and stretch democratic consent far beyond what most voters would reasonably expect.
Even supporters of local government reform should be uncomfortable with accountability being extended this far by default.
⚖️ The Reform factor — and the legal challenge
Local elections are not just about council services. They are how parties build political infrastructure.
Councillors mobilise activists, organise locally, knock doors, and form the backbone of general election campaigns. For a challenger party, council seats are how national polling momentum turns into a functioning ground operation.
Delaying elections slows that process. It preserves the existing local networks of established parties while limiting the ability of challengers to convert support into representation.
That concern is now moving beyond politics and into the courts. Reform UK has launched legal action challenging the postponement of elections, arguing that delaying the democratic process risks undermining voters’ rights.
That case will be watched closely — not just for its legal outcome, but for what it says about how far governments can go in deferring elections for administrative convenience.
⚠️ The democratic cost
The Electoral Commission has warned that delaying elections risks damaging public confidence, undermining the legitimacy of local decision-making, and creating a conflict of interest when sitting councils influence how long they go before facing voters again.
You can argue for reorganisation. You can argue against double elections. But democracy only works if consent is renewed on time.
When elections are postponed late, accountability is deferred, and political competition is quietly constrained, the system may continue to function — but its legitimacy erodes.
And once voters believe the game is being managed rather than contested, trust is far harder to rebuild than any council structure ever will be.
✍️ Jamie Jenkins
Stats Jamie | Stats, Facts & Opinions
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