Illegal Crossings Up. Taxes Up. Unemployment Up. Do You Feel Better Off?
Starmer hailed a £117 energy cut at PMQs — but the average worker faces ~£880 more in tax, while crossings and unemployment climb.
This week’s numbers tell a consistent story: the headline often flatters — the underlying trend doesn’t.
On immigration, ministers can point to falling visas and fewer hotels. But control isn’t measured by press lines — it’s measured by whether crossings fall, whether the asylum caseload shrinks, and whether the system stops being gamed.
On the economy, the labour market is flashing early warning signals. Vacancies are down, competition for jobs is rising, and graduate hiring is being squeezed — the classic pattern before unemployment climbs.
At Prime Minister’s Questions, Keir Starmer highlighted a fall in the energy price cap. But when you follow the money properly, working households are still worse off.
And in the background, the NHS faces a demographic wave that spending alone won’t fix.
Here’s the full breakdown.
🚨 Immigration & Asylum: tidy headlines, stubborn pressures
The latest immigration and asylum figures allow the government to point to some positive-sounding shifts:
Work, study and family visas down 13%
Asylum claims down 4%
Around 30,000 people in asylum hotels — lowest in 18 months
But the scale remains enormous: 757,000 visas granted and 100,000+ asylum claims.
The real stress test is small-boat crossings — and those rose 13% in 2025, with 2026 running higher year-to-date as conditions improve. A few calm weeks don’t change the trend.
The Channel also isn’t the whole system. Pakistan remains the most common nationality claiming asylum, highlighting the issue of people arriving via legal routes and then moving into asylum. Among those who arrive legally and then claim asylum, roughly 72% are men.
Meanwhile, around 107,000 people remain on asylum support. Falling hotel use does not automatically mean falling caseloads — it often means dispersal into HMOs and wider communities.
Less visible is not the same as resolved.
📉 Jobs: rising competition, falling opportunity
Vacancies now stand at 726,000 (Nov 2025–Jan 2026) — down 73,000 (-9.2%) on the year and below pre-pandemic levels.
Vacancies turn before unemployment. When firms stop advertising roles, hiring slows. Then unemployment follows.
The clearest sign of tightening is the ratio of unemployed people to vacancies:
Now 2.6 unemployed people per vacancy
Up from 1.9 a year earlier
That’s a marked deterioration in labour-market conditions.
Real-time data backs it up. Adzuna reports vacancies around 695,000 in January, the first time below 700,000 since early 2021 — and graduate vacancies have fallen below 10,000 for the first time since tracking began.
Graduate hiring is often the first thing firms freeze when demand looks uncertain. It’s a classic early-stage slowdown signal.
⚡ Energy: £117 off the cap — £880 more in tax
At Prime Minister’s Questions this week, Keir Starmer pointed to the Ofgem announcement of an average £117 reduction in the energy price cap.
But the broader picture matters more. For the average full-time worker, Income Tax + National Insurance rises by roughly £880 over the period analysed due to frozen thresholds and fiscal drag.
That’s around eight times the size of the energy bill reduction.
So while the cap fall makes the headline, the tax system quietly takes far more back.
If the goal is to genuinely help households:
Lower taxes on work, so pay rises aren’t absorbed by fiscal drag
Lower energy costs structurally, through supply, security and reliable domestic capacity
🏥 NHS: the demographic wave is coming
One of the most important numbers I mentioned this week wasn’t about migration or tax — it was demographic.
The number of people aged over 75 in the UK is projected to rise by around 37% over the next 15 years.
That’s the age group where healthcare demand accelerates sharply.
NHS spending has risen dramatically over the past two decades — but without structural reform, higher spending alone won’t solve a demographic surge of that scale.
If the system remains in permanent “firefighting mode”, costs rise without outcomes improving.
That means the real conversation needs to be about:
Efficiency and modernisation
Digital systems and continuity of care
Using technology to reduce administrative drag
Preparing now for the age profile of the country in 15 years
Because demographics aren’t political — they’re mathematical.
✍️ Jamie Jenkins
Stats Jamie | Stats, Facts & Opinions
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