Britain Downgraded. Taxes Up. Welfare Up. Who Exactly Is Reeves’ “Plan” For?
A record tax burden, a rising benefits bill, and more Britons leaving — all baked into the official forecast.
Keir Starmer told voters Labour wouldn’t increase taxes on working people. Rachel Reeves keeps telling us she’s on “the right economic plan”.
So let’s go to what actually matters: the OBR forecast sitting underneath the latest Spring Statement.
Because the plan relies on taking more from working people — not always through a single headline tax-rate announcement, but through fiscal drag: freezing thresholds so that as wages rise, more of your pay is pulled into higher tax bands. You can argue about definitions all day. For workers, the outcome is simple: the government takes more of your pay increase.
And the OBR itself effectively warns what happens when you push the tax take this high: incentives can start to distort behaviour and constrain economic activity — the polite way of saying high taxes can push people into perverse decisions instead of productive ones. That’s not a plan to unleash growth. That’s a plan that risks choking it.
💷 The benefits bill keeps rising — and the state keeps expanding
At the same time as the tax net widens, the OBR expects welfare spending to keep climbing. The big pressures are pensions and health/disability-related benefits, with caseloads expected to rise.
So while workers are dragged into paying more through frozen thresholds, the state is also committing to a larger welfare bill. Once spending rises and becomes embedded, it’s politically difficult to unwind — which means the pressure for higher taxes doesn’t go away. It becomes the new normal.
👵 “Up… then clawed back”: pension rises meet the tax trap
This is where it gets politically explosive.
The OBR projects that the State Pension will exceed the Personal Allowance later in the forecast period. In plain English: pensions can rise on paper, but if allowances stay frozen, a growing number of pensioners get pulled into income tax by default — meaning those pension rises are clawed back through the tax system.
It’s fiscal drag again. Just aimed at another group — often people who never expected to be paying income tax in retirement.
🧳 Migration: the forecast now bakes in more Britons leaving
There’s another under-reported line in the OBR assumptions: they’ve updated their migration forecast using the latest data, and the change is driven by a more negative assumption for British net migration.
In plain English, they’re now baking in that more Britons are leaving than previously thought.
And it’s not just about headcounts — it’s about the tax base. If higher earners and wealth creators decide they’ve had enough and leave too, the bill doesn’t disappear. It gets spread across a smaller group of people who stay, work, and pay, meaning a smaller number of people end up funding more of the state.
🚨 Since Reeves came into office, the direction of travel is clear:
Inflation is up, pushing up the cost of borrowing and hitting people in the pocket every week through higher prices.
Borrowing is up, meaning more of your taxes go toward debt interest rather than public services.
Spending is up, and once you ratchet the baseline higher, it’s harder to ever bring taxes down.
Tax is up, and not just in the future. Even now, working people are already paying more because thresholds are frozen. That’s fiscal drag: a stealth tax rise that bites every payday, without a headline rate change.
Welfare is up, expanding the benefits bill and shifting the burden onto a smaller group of workers funding it.
Unemployment is up, weakening wage growth, squeezing households, and pushing more people toward the welfare system.
And the tax base is shrinking, more Britons are leaving, and the risk is that higher earners leave too, meaning those who remain are left paying more.
This is the cycle they’re creating: higher prices, higher borrowing costs, higher taxes on workers, a bigger welfare bill — and a smaller base left to fund it.
✍️ Jamie Jenkins
Stats Jamie | Stats, Facts & Opinions
📢 Call to Action
If this helped cut through the noise, share it and subscribe free by entering your email in the box below and get the stats before the spin, straight to your inbox (no algorithms).
📚 If you found this useful, you might also want to read:
📲 Follow me here for more daily updates:
https://thebluearmchair.substack.com/p/advice-from-the-cabinet-office-on?r=5kmhkr
Great points as always Jamie.
Lying is the new truth and this government's curve is now the Laughter curve not the Laffer curve.